Bettor Expectations (Part Four)

This series of articles began by asserting that making a profit in betting isn’t easy. If it was then everyone would be doing it until bookmakers went bankrupt. That’s not to say it’s not possible, far from it, but expectations should be realistic and if we are to be rewarded by positive returns, we need to do all we can to maximise that possibility.

Yesterday looked at different types of betting from a low odds/high strike-rate approach – that may appeal to some with it’s slow and steady nature but not be exciting enough for others – to high odds/low strike-rates that may excite some bettors but not be for others who cannot tolerate the inevitable dips and losing runs that accompany such a service.

If you are to follow a tipster for a long period then it seems logical that you need to share the same preference of method and have a matching mentality that will determine whether you are going to remain interested in persevering for a long period. 

If you’re going to be bored with continually betting to win small amounts then an odds-on service isn’t going to be for you. If you’re known to go ‘on tilt’ and implode at the hint of a losing run, then backing longshots is not going to work out well. 

What if its subject matter is a sport or area in which you have no interest? For some, they’ll be happy as long as it’s profitable but for others it could become an unwelcome daily task.

Knowing what you want will make it easier to find what you need. Betting shouldn’t and needn’t be a chore and finding the right service will help to make for an enjoyable experience. However, the likelihood of an enjoyable experience is going to be related to making a profit – losing money is unlikely to be too much fun, after all – and here are a few more points to consider to make this more likely:

The importance of getting the best price

To give ourselves the best chance of making a profit, we should aim to obtain the best odds we possibly can as often as we possibly can.

Let’s say a tipster provides 1,000 tips a year, an average of just under 3 per day, and the average price is 5 in decimal odds (4/1 in old money). He has 200 successful bets and therefore breaks even.

If, however, 6 or 5/1 was available for each of those, then backing each bet would return a profit of £2,000 to £10 stakes with 1,000 x £10 staked (£10,000) and £12,000 returned (£60 for each of the 200 winners).

But, if these were backed at 4 (3/1) then a loss of £2,000 would be made. Same bets, same stakes, but because of the different odds a very different financial outcome.

There are three points to be made here. Firstly, it’s worth opening as many different accounts with bookmakers as possible because with each one, the chances of being able to find the best price increases. Odds comparison sites such as oddschecker.com can then be an invaluable time saving resource to help find the best place for each bet.

Many new to betting just want to have one account and stubbornly refuse to open more. In doing so, they have already made things harder for themselves and reduced their own chances of success. Years ago, when withdrawals took days there was a small excuse. Now, with the likes of PayPal widely accepted by bookmakers, money can be moved in minutes or hours.

Secondly, prices move around all the time and any tipster worth his salt is making a value call on his or her selections considering the odds available at the time the selections are made. If you join a tipster who publishes bets when you’re not available to make them, perhaps because of being at work, on the school run or being soundly asleep, then there’s a chance the opportunity to get the best price will be gone.

Similarly, the quantity of the tips could be a factor. If you have plenty of time and the inclination to place 20 bets a day and to shop around to get the best price with each, then a high volume service may be for you. If not, then you need a service with fewer tips.This is just one of the practicalities of betting – the time and quantity of bets a service provides is an important but often overlooked consideration.

Seasoned bettors may also have found restrictions on bookmaker accounts and need to use the betting exchanges. However, their markets are often not normally fully formed until the day for many events, so a service offering bets the night before racing is unlikely to be suitable whereas one providing picks closer to the off would be preferable.

Another consideration is the price of a service. Again, this is only logical, but if you are only staking small amounts then a high priced subscription isn’t going to work because even if it does well then you’ll be paying back most of your profit in fees and making little progress. 

Of course, the cheapest way and to avoid paying subscriptions for services is to find selections for yourself and tomorrow I’ll look at the key aspect needed to come out on top if you choose to do that.

Miles currently runs an excellent racing service and you can give it a try by clicking the link below…

Improvers

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