Tag Archives: Premier League

Bet Chat recommends…

We have a special edition of ‘Bet Chat recommends’ this week, with just the one recommendation, but a good un.

I’ll hand over to Clive Jones for the lowdown…

Ladies and gents, welcome to the Footy Comp.

The original Footy Comp began as a works competition with 10 players and has grown to 31 players across two divisions with the hope of reaching three for our tenth season. 

It has become like the Hotel California lyric – you can check out anytime you like but you can never leave- as it tends to become addictive! 

It is basically a Premier League (mainly) results prediction competition played head-to-head against other players. The prizes are dependent on participants but last year there were 43 prizes totalling £2463 and the leading player last year earned £592.50 with eight players exceeding their entry fees and 17 players winning something. 

We run the following competitions through the season:

  • (Hopefully) three divisions each with prizes for the top three and promotion and relegation as you might expect.
  • Ten “monthlies” which are won by the top points scorer for each month.
  • FA Cup
  • Carabao Cup
  • Papa John’s Trophy
  • Champions League
  • Europa League
  • Europa Conference League – new this season
  • lus, next year is World Cup year with free entry into the group qualification (separate entry fee for qualifiers for the final tournament)

So, it’s safe to say there’s something for everyone!

As new players, you would join in Division Three unless leavers create gaps in Division Two and your European adventure would probably begin in the Conference League but of course, everything is dependent on numbers.

So, what does it cost? £100 a season by 10 x £10 monthly payments by monthly standing order or £90 if paid in advance. 

The competition is available to absolutely all. Last year our eldest was 85 and our youngest was 15. The closest shared my bed and the most distant would have been one of a trio of players from Australia so feel free to pass this onto anyone you think may be interested…

Man, woman, child or parrot, black, white or green, even Catholics are welcome. I’ll take anyone’s money!

All you need do at this stage is send me your email address to express your interest and I‘ll do the rest. Any family or friends attract a further £10 off your fees so why not take it into work, gather ten friends and enter for nothing!

For more information or to register your interest, just send an email to Footycomp.atfd@btinternet.com.

“I just don’t feel like working today”

Reporting from Bet Chat HQ, north London…

It’s cold, it’s dark, it’s a Monday…

Sometimes you just don’t feel like doing anything productive, and today I’m here to tell you… that’s okay.

You may be slightly taken aback by that. After all, it seems to be all the rage for high flying businessman, media types and ‘influencers’ to broadcast their ‘secrets of success’ which inevitably include ‘a day in the life’ piece…

You know, the ones where the individual has run a half marathon, showered and meditated for two hours, all in time for their 7am breakfast business meeting?

Well, to that I say one word… Bullsh*t.

Because you see, even if they actually do those things more than once a year (and I imagine most don’t) it’s all, well, bullsh*t.

Unless you’re a professional runner, you don’t ever need to run a half marathon. Realistically, you don’t ever need to run more than a few hundred metres to the bus/train/toilet. And you certainly don’t need to practise for that eventuality before 7am.

Don’t get me wrong, if you enjoy running that’s great, and exercise is certainly important, but exercise before 7am is wholly unnecessary and not something to aspire towards.

Like running, lengthy meditation is also pretty good for you, but you know what’s even better for you… a proper amount of sleep.

And as for 7am business meetings (breakfast included or otherwise) well, here’s the thing… 

EVERYONE you invite to that meeting will HATE you for it. So, not only does it reduce the chances of you getting a proper amount of sleep, it also reduces the amount that your peers like and respect you.

Sometimes, it’s okay to do naff all

If this season’s Premier League football has taught us anything so far, it’s that trying to do too much leads to burnout (injury numbers have been significantly higher than in past seasons when the fixture schedule was much lighter).

As much as some people like to make out that they’re constantly productive and never tired, that’s just not possible, and the more excessive your regime, the more likely you are to break.

So you know what, next time you need a rest, as soon as is possible, have a rest, be it a 30 minute nap or a whole week off work… 

Your body and mind will thank you for it, and I can guarantee that you’ll be a hell of a lot more productive afterwards.

Part Two: The Results

Over the course of this week I’m doing something a little bit different and running through a highly profitable betting strategy with you… 

Yesterday I put out ‘Part One: The Hypothesis’. If you missed it, click here to catch up.

Following on from my betting strategy hypothesis, I selected a bookmaker (more on that tomorrow) and began placing accumulator bets in July after the Premier League restarted. 

Later this week I will be publishing a video scrolling through all the selections so you can see the proof but today I wanted to provide a detailed summary, so here goes.

Number of selections: 51

With the first bet placed on July 11th and the most recent, November 3rd, that’s a very manageable average of exactly 3 a week.

Number of winners: 9

That’s a 17.6% strike rate which may not seem like a lot but remember, these are accumulators, which have chunky odds. That brings me nicely on to…

Average odds: 24/1

Average winning odds: 13/1

It’s worth noting here that there were no huge winners that skewed the average winning odds but there were a pair of three figure odds losers that have amped up the average odds figure a little.

Average stake: £9.74

Overall profit/loss: +£981.28

So, if we take £9.74 as our point value, that means a profit of a whopping 100.75 points!

And there were near misses too…

Pretty impressive eh? 

A sustainable strike rate (the profit wasn’t down to just one or two huge winners), juicy average odds, easy to follow (3 bets a week on average) and a very tasty profit from a highly affordable stake (just shy of £10).

On top of all that, there were a number of near misses which could have made for an even more impressive profit…

And yes, I know that ‘if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle’ – that’s not the point I’m making. The point I’m making is that there was no great fortune in these results. Instead, luck pretty much balanced out, as luck tends to do.

So, to make that point, here are the near misses:

  • November 3rd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.63/1

That team was Norwich at home to Millwall, where they had 27 shots but the game finished 0-0.

  • October 28th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.17/1

Again, the team in question drew.

  • October 20th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 8.11/1

The team here was PSG at home to Man Utd. United are currently 15th in the Premier League, but somehow won this match.

  • October 4th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 9.32/1

This was the incredible Aston Villa 7 Liverpool 2 match.

  • October 4th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 16.59/1

This was a variation on the acca above and it was again the Villa Liverpool match which was the only one to let me down. I told you the overall profit made wasn’t down to luck!

  • September 22nd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 9.4/1

The team in question drew.

  • September 6th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 15.47/1
  • August 18th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 16.87/1
  • July 26th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 7.62/1
  • July 26th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 37.36/1
  • July 22nd, one team failed to win, acca odds were 21.1/1
  • July 16th, one team failed to win, acca odds were 6.27/1

See what I mean!

Over 100 points profit from this strategy and that despite TWELVE accumulators (ranging from 6.27/1 to 37.36/1) missing out by a single selection.

You don’t need to be either a football expert or a betting expert to see that this strategy has some serious legs.

I certainly hope that’s whet your appetite. Tomorrow, I’m going to talk about the best bookie/bookies to use for this and then on Friday I’ll explain how you can start replicating my success.

“Forgot to defrost the freezer”

Reporting from new Bet Chat HQ, north London…

These emails have been a little less frequent recently – and will continue to be so this week – as I am currently in the process of moving house.

I have successfully planted myself in the new place, but getting the old place into a state that results in the full return of my deposit is something of a pain in the rear, so you’ll have to excuse the somewhat sporadic sends. Normal service will resume shortly.

Don’t look for problems, look for opportunities

Having said that, I do find myself with some time spare this afternoon and I wanted to use it to tell you about an article I read on what is, generally speaking, a very good betting advisory website. 

It read as follows:

Why I’m not betting yet

Usually I would not bet on football for at least the first 2 months of the season because working out the early games is impossible. I cannot make head nor tale of what is happening in the Premier League right now and if anyone tells me they can I will call them out on it.

I was reading about a company that has creating an algorithm that has predicted who will win the league this year and my first thought was, “dopes!”. They have Liverpool winning the league by 2 points from Man City but was that before Liverpool lost Van Dyke or after?

If you try to predict the result of a game right now you have no chance and so far we’ve seen results that have me scratching my head wondering when its all going to settle down. Nobody is playing consistently well, Leeds winning at Villa last night was a result nobody could have predicted until after the game and loads of people are doing that. The bets put up by the Racing Post were Villa to win and BTTS.

I am no fan of VAR and I read Ron’s comments on social media were he said he’s not enjoying his football now because you cannot enjoy a goal the second it is scored and I have to agree. The ball to hand rule is crazy and you just get the feeling its being done for a reason and that is to stop 0-0 draws.

Fans being missing is also another factor in some of the crazy results we are seeing. Sheff Utd’s manager reckons it’s costing his team points because they relied on home support to help them and it will be the same everywhere. I doubt very much Spurs would have won 6-1 at Old Trafford if the home support had been there.

You explain to me Villa winning 7-2 against Liverpool, or how the goals per game ratio of 3.58 has happened! The record across a season is 2.82 and that is set to be smashed this season. The last time we saw a GPG ratio in excess of 3 came in 1960 when it was 3.73 and all this matters when trying to predict the outcome of a game.

The last 5 Premier League seasons have produced GPG averages of 2.72, 2.82, 2.68, 2.80 and 2.70 so that record will most likely go this time around, because of VAR and ball to hand.

Give me a couple of weeks to see if it settles down but don’t expect miracles from me or the other two lads doing football betting this season because it isn’t normal. Those laying football bets must be laughing at the moment.

Now, the first thing I should say is that if you aren’t comfortable betting on something, then not betting is absolutely a good thing to do…

HOWEVER, what I take huge issue with here is the assumption that because the author thinks it’s too hard to bet at the moment then that’s the end of it. It’s arrogant but, more importantly, it focuses entirely on problems, and not on the opportunities that can actually make this a very good time to bet. 

To help explain this, I’ll break it down piece by piece.

Why I AM betting

Usually I would not bet on football for at least the first 2 months of the season because working out the early games is impossible.

The use of the word impossible is ridiculous and instantly shuts down any possibility of finding an angle. Games early in the season are more unpredictable sure, but that doesn’t mean there’s no way in. 

Why not lay short price favourites if you’re of the opinion anyone can beat anyone?

Personally, I always focus heavily on ante-post at this time of year and if you bought my Premier Bets guide you’ll know that a number of those selections are already looking strong. Getting the value in those markets simply isn’t possible if you wait until we’re a month or two into the season.

I cannot make head nor tale of what is happening in the Premier League right now and if anyone tells me they can I will call them out on it.

If I can’t figure out an angle, nobody can. An unhelpful ego at play there.

If you try to predict the result of a game right now you have no chance.

See above. Also, plenty of the results have been easy to predict or, at least, not entirely uneasy given that lots of the teams are quite closely matched.

For example Liverpool, the champions, are joint top. Fulham and West Brom, two weak looking promoted sides, have 1 and 2 points respectively. The likes of Newcastle and Palace are grinding out draws and narrow wins, often against the odds. Frank Lampard’s Chelsea are unable to defend. Man Utd under Solskjaer are bang average…

What’s so unpredictable about all that?

Nobody is playing consistently well, Leeds winning at Villa last night was a result nobody could have predicted until after the game

Adam Cheng, who runs The Inside Man (currently half price via this link) did actually, albeit with a bit of insurance using an Asian handicap:

Here’s the bet I placed on it:

And that’s an absolutely classic example of “if I can’t do it, nobody can’ from the writer… why exactly was it impossible to predict?

Aston Villa almost got relegated last season and Leeds had started the new season well. Seemed like a pretty even match to me and, at the odds, Leeds looked a great bet.

Always remember: it’s not about predicting the result so much as it’s about working out if the odds are VALUE.

I am no fan of VAR.

I actually completely agree with that whole paragraph in terms of hating VAR but, from a betting point of view, this is the second season of it. You should have already adapted your betting to take it into account.

You explain to me Villa winning 7-2 against Liverpool,

Explain soon to be relegated Watford winning 3-0 against soon to be runaway champions Liverpool last season. Freak results have, can, and always will happen. The important thing to remember is that they are exactly that – freak results – and one loss is only one loss, be it from a betting or a sporting perspective. 

Liverpool have lost 7-2 to Villa but they are joint top of the table. Don’t assign ridiculous values to one off outcomes (this also nicely takes us back to Villa going on to lose to Leeds).

or how the goals per game ratio of 3.58 has happened! The record across a season is 2.82 and that is set to be smashed this season.

At the point of this article we were 5 game rounds into the season. These runs happen and indeed, in the 7 games over the subsequent weekend, there was an average of 1.86 goals per game.

Rather than throw your hands up in the air and give up, a better approach would be to think ‘a correction is clearly coming and, on top of that, people are likely now over-betting lots of goals, so there should be some real value on offer betting on ‘under 2.5 goals’, ‘both teams to score: no’ etc.

Those laying football bets must be laughing at the moment.

The cherry on the cake… the article is concluded with a sentence that actually makes a mockery of his entire argument…

If those laying football bets are laughing at the moment then making money from football betting clearly isn’t impossible. You just need to be placing different bets, e.g. lay bets on short price favourites!!

I’d like to finish by stressing again that absolutely none of this is anything personal – it’s from a good website – but it just irritates me no end when people correctly identify an unusual occurrence but then use it to give up, rather than turn it into an opportunity.

Some of the best betting opportunities of all time are those found when the state of play is not normal and that’s because everybody has to adapt their way of thinking including, crucially, those who are setting the odds.

Sure, it’s no bad thing to stop betting if you aren’t comfortable, but stopping betting in situations like this guarantees that you also miss out on getting one step ahead and making some serious profits.

One last thing

Just before I go, I wanted to remind you that our half-price sale ends this Saturday.

There’s loads of good stuff available, all at ridiculously low prices. They include two football services…

The Inside Man (mentioned above) and Football Index Intelligence, which is a great example of what I’ve been saying, given we launched it while football was suspended due to coronavirus and yet all members are now sitting on a healthy profit!

Help a Bet Chatter: Check out this prediction league

Bet Chat may only be seven months old but I feel like we’ve already built a great little community with lots of you getting involved, be it through commenting on our emails, joining our service Telegram groups or even taking part in our lockdown quiz.

That’s why we’ve launched Help a Bet Chatter, in which we’ll give a little bit of publicity to a good cause, small business or group that one of our readers is involved with.

We’ll aim to do one of these a month, so we need  your submissions! You can send in the details of anything you’d like to share to clients@thebetchat.com.

Obviously there’s no pressure on anybody to donate to or even engage with any of these shout outs, so don’t worry about that – we know times are financially tough for an awful lot of people at the moment. This is just a chance for us to use our platform to provide a little bit of extra coverage.

Have you got what it takes to win this league?

Bet Chatter Clive runs a correct score prediction league and he’d love for some fellow Bet Chatters to join this season. There are cash prizes and I’ll be getting involved so it’ll be fascinating to see who comes out on top.

Here’s Clive with the details:

The footy comp has been running for 9 years now so is well established.

Each week, (and sometimes midweek depending on the fixture list), you are asked to predict the scores of ten games; the Premier League Saturday and Sunday games, made up to ten with Championship fixtures, with preference given to the televised games.

 The scoring is as follows:

  • Home or away correct result, score incorrect – 2 points
  • Home or away correct result, score correct – 3 points
  • Draw correct regardless of score – 3 points 

That gives you a maximum of 30 points but, of course, nobody has ever got 30! 

The important thing to remember is that you are simultaneously playing two competitions. Firstly, a league match against one opponent and secondly a “monthly” which awards prizes to the highest scorers each month. So you can win a league game by scoring 4 if your opponent scores 2 but you may need 60 to win the monthly which you won’t do with regular scores of 4. 

Your entry fee is split in half with one half paying for the league and cup prizes (Prem winner £400 last season) and half for the monthly which always peaks in December because of the increased number of games (£80 first prize last year). There are currently two divisions but I hope to reach three this year. There is promotion and relegation between them as you might expect. 

In addition to the league, we play a Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, League Cup and even a Checkatrade Trophy competition using the fixtures from each tournament.  

It is basically an email competition. You will always get fixtures sent by email, results, updated tables, cup draws and general news and, importantly, you always have to send your scores in by email. 

We have one person playing from Australia in their 80s who is somewhat technically challenged but email seems to work for everyone anyway!  

The great thing about this game is that you can spend 10 seconds or ten hours working out the likely scores depending on how much time you have available (and still get most of them wrong anyway!) and you are never out of the running as the monthly scores are reset each month for the “monthlies”. 

Entry is £10 per month for August-May by standing order, making a nice round total of £100 a year. You will soon see from the Order of Merit tab on our master spreadsheet that seven of us won over the £100 last year (sadly not including me!). Four of the top seven earners were second tier players. 

If you’d like to take part or have any further questions, you can reach me at footycomp.atfd@btinternet.com

Clive.

So, there you have it. Hopefully that’s of interest and, if so, I look forward to pitting my wits against you this season!