Reporting from Bet Chat HQ, Northern Ireland…
I’m currently struggling with my second cold since the start of February.
This is pretty much unheard of for me but, as Andrea has pointed out, on this occasion I can’t even blame her kids, seeing as I’ve not seen them for the last week (her kids, as with all primary school children, would test even the most impressive immune system).
Instead, I imagine the blame largely lies in the fact that my house has about as much insulation as a sieve, and said house is situated on the north coast of Northern Ireland, with its notoriously wet and windy climate.
Here’s the thing, ladies and gents… climate is important. Climate affects people’s lives. And I think climate is the shortcut to betting success at this summer’s World Cup.
Don’t do a Donald
Human beings are pretty bad at long-term thinking, and they only seem to be getting worse.
Previously successful manager oversees a couple of bad games? Get rid, and don’t worry about the fact the only available replacements are worse managers.
Ageing player wants a lucrative new contract and has scored a couple of goals recently? Sign him up, and don’t worry about the fact that this time next season he’ll be costing you a fortune as well as stinking the place out.
Desperately need a distraction from files linking you to an infamous paedophile? Start a war, and don’t worry about the fact that it’s going to achieve nothing other than hiking up energy prices and replacing a dictator with his son.
You see what I mean?
And that’s why now – while the final World Cup qualifying games are being played in largely shoddy springtime weather – is the perfect time to focus on who is and isn’t going to be hampered by the unbearable heat and humidity generated by the US and Mexican sun this summer.
Don’t back these teams
Now obviously you should never really back England to win a major international tournament if you’re based in the UK, because the weight of money means they will almost certainly be a shorter price than they should be.
But you especially shouldn’t back them as 6/1 second favourites for this tournament.
Our players are not well-suited to the climate they are going to experience, and the playing style (which manager, Thomas Tuchel, is trying to make even ‘more English’) is also not suited to the climate they are going to experience.
Much the same can be said of any of the other British teams that qualify, and the Republic of Ireland.
I would also be very wary of everybody’s favourite dark horses, Norway. They may have been brilliant in qualifying, but conditions in June and July will be markedly different.
This lot will probably do well
I’ve already backed possession-loving Spain in the outright winners market, and during the finals themselves, I’ll likely be having plenty of bets on the likes of Mexico (who also have home support) and the South American sides.
As for potential one-game upsets, some of the unfancied Central American sides might even be of interest (Haiti to get a result against Scotland, anyone?) After all, in the 2014 World Cup, hosted by Brazil, minnows Costa Rica made the quarters and were only beaten by the Netherlands on penalties. England, meanwhile, finished bottom of their group.
Lastly, there may well be some value in backing ‘under’ in the various goal markets, and perhaps some 0-0 draws, given both the energy-sapping heat and the fact that a lot of third-placed teams will make it out of their groups.
Stay ahead of the curve
As with all good betting, this is about finding an edge and staying ahead of the curve.
Finding value doesn’t necessarily mean backing big outsiders. It simply means identifying key elements that are being overlooked by the betting markets.
In this Euro-centric football world, and at this early point in the year, the weather in the US and Mexico this summer couldn’t be further from most people’s minds. As such, it’s time to make hay while the sun doesn’t shine.
