Clive’s Betting Diary: The importance of Einstein

Einstein once said that the definition of madness is to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results (or something like that anyway!). After another bad week it is time to take stock and assess what I am doing.

This is now becoming one of my hardest quarters since starting to bet seriously eight years ago. There is obviously a need for patience in this game but a stubborn refusal to change anything is not really welcome either. So far, it is manageable, but I now feel it is getting closer to being a real threat to my betting bank.

To date, my main protection tactic has been to halve stakes when a particular tipster has reached a landmark downturn – losses of £1000 for the major tipsters, £500 for the minor – and then wait for the tide to turn. But I can’t remember a time when my group of tipsters were ALL performing so badly at the same time (golf excluded).

So, here are the figures for the year to date by tipster, all to 3rd April.

LOVE: Starting stake £20 per point. Currently -£811. More than -£1000 if including 2021. STAKE HALVED

NORTHERN MONKEY: Starting stake £20 per point. Currently -£990. STAKE HALVED

RACING TIPSTER 1: Starting stake £2 per point. Currently -£158.

RACING TIPSTER 2: Starting stake £10 per point. Currently -£20.

FIRST CLASS RACING (new tipster): Current stake £40 per point. Currently +£27.

RACECRACKER: Starting stake £10 per point. Currently +£36.

INSIDE MAN: Starting stake £40 per point. Currently -£177.

WADSTER: Starting stake £20 per point. Currently -£359.

GOLF: Starting stake £0.50 per point. Currently +£486.

Of course, a point with one tipster is not the same with another tipster, For example, RT1 scores each selection out of ten, so a hotter tip might be 8/10. Northern Monkey bets in multiples of 0.25 points, never betting more than 3 points on any one selection and only then about twice a year.

Similar problems are caused by Racecracker supplying four tips a day on average and First Class Racing about one a week. Each is correct to provide the number of tips they do but it makes comparison hard.

Equally, it seems obvious to upgrade the golf bets, but I am backing about eight players per tournament at odds of up to 200/1 and that seems very risky. I am already using over £100, sometimes £200 per week on golf which seems like a potential disaster waiting to happen. Conversely, Inside Man rarely tips much above evens except on season long bets. Comparing these two is equally hard.

Thankfully, there is a natural break to most sport in April. Racing sees the National Hunt come to a sort of end with the Grand National and the flat take over as the major force. Both Love and Northern Monkey specialize in flat racing but RC1 is exclusively National Hunt. Racecracker has historically done better in the flat season. 

The final international break in football came and went in April. In golf, the unusualness of the World Matchplay is followed by The Masters, the first major of the year which is surely a marking point for the players at least. So, there is some reason to expect change in the near future, even if we can’t see what change!

Also, I have to take history into account. Northern Monkey has given me seven years out of seven of profit. But then I must consider personal changes to the tipster. One has moved from a job in the racing industry to a job as a scientist. Does that affect his performance or not?

So, the big question is: what to do? Nothing is by far the easiest but remember Einstein?  Nothing is not really an option. For the answer, you’ll have to wait until next week. In the meantime, does anyone know the winner of the Grand National?

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