Reporting from Bet Chat HQ, north London…
Today I want to talk about evidence. A straightforward concept, but one that so many people make a total pigs ear of.
It really should be straightforward…
Something happens that is a direct consequence of something else. Therefore, if you want that thing to happen again, you do the same thing again. If you want something else to happen, you do something else.
Take a soft-boiled egg. Now, clearly, there’s a margin here, somewhere between about 4.5 minutes and 5.5 minutes depending on taste, but we all know roughly what amount of boiling gives us a good soft-boiled egg.
If you boil it for 2 minutes, it will not be cooked. You can try again and again and again with an endless supply of eggs and none of them will be cooked inside 2 minutes…
We know this because we have the evidence of people’s past attempts and that’s why, if we want a soft-boiled egg, we would always cook it for longer than 2 minutes.
So why then, do people ignore make a habit of wilfully ignoring evidence?
Increasingly extreme weather events – such as last year’s Australian wildfires – are occurring on a regular basis…
Temperature records are being broken left, right and centre…
Yesterday, Bet Chat Bec and I had a day in the park in shorts and t-shirt and I ended it a little sunburnt… in MARCH.
And yet still you get people claiming that climate change isn’t a thing.
Evidence is our friend
As bettors and investors, we simply can’t afford to ignore evidence. Sure, there can be different ways to interpret evidence but you wouldn’t simply write it off due to, say, your political leanings would you?
Just imagine the scene…
Bert: “I’m backing Horsey McHorseface in the 3:15”
Ernie: “Are you mad?! He’s raced 10 times over three miles and ran out of gas in the final half mile every single time”
Bert: “Oh don’t be stupid Ernie. That’s just what the libtards and snowflakes want you to believe”
A trillion dollar scam?
Here are some things we know to be true about cryptocurrencies:
- There’s currently around $1trillion invested in them.
- Tesla – a hugely successful global enterprise – recently bought $1.5billion worth of Bitcoin.
- As reported by Forbes this week, Visa has started a pilot whereby transactions are settled using cryptocurrencies.
So that’s a humongous amount of cash tied up in the space, a humongous business making a humongous investment in the space and a humongous financial services provider starting to incorporate the space into its offerings…
And yet despite all of that evidence, some people’s response to crypto is to simply state ‘it’s a scam’ or ‘it’s a pyramid scheme’.
A trillion dollar space with huge profit potential written off without a care in the world.
Don’t eat raw eggs
The purpose of today’s mail isn’t to sing the praises of cryptocurrency (although if it is a space that interests you, you should take a look at this) but rather to encourage you to always put hard evidence above lazy speculation or, worse, nonsensical biases.
Whatever you do with your hard earned cash when it comes to betting or investments, always make sure it’s logical and backed up by facts.
I can assure you that a two minute boiled egg does not a good breakfast make.