Hi there,
With respect to the pullback from the highs, we seem to have judged that perfectly, with our 5-8% range being uncannily accurate.
Last week I suggested that the markets were likely to remain rangebound between March’s high and April’s low for the immediate future.
In just five days, we’re already getting close to testing those highs! Trade What You See (TWYS) looks bullish but there is a but, and the but I’m referring to is not 100% tangible. This is what makes my market timing analysis so difficult to translate completely into a quant algo.
This week I do see several decent setups – mostly post-earnings – with many having already played out well from last week and previous weeks.
Market Outlook
Watch the video at the foot of this email for more detail.
Post earnings has been largely positive, particularly where OVI has featured. And there are more post-earnings setups occurring, with bulls outgunning the bears.
On the face of it, the recent index highs are under pressure, particularly with heavyweights like AAPL and the other Big Seven apart from TSLA having a strong couple of weeks.
This is where the ‘but’ comes into play. I can’t quite put a finger on it, but going by experience, after such a prolonged bullish run from October to April, some form of sideways gyration would be more ‘normal’ behaviour.
As ever, we just have to play each trade by its merits, so be cautious with your P1 profit targets… Protect them quickly.
In summary, there is upside potential, but don’t take it for granted as one twitch could spark a nasty whipsaw.
Our market timing is a real strength that few others possess. Being good at market timing enables you to swim WITH the tide.
The Main Indices
All the indices rose through their 50-dmas last week. Stocks consolidating above that Key Level with positive OVIs and other supporting Big Money Footprints are worth focusing on.
Keep sticking with our game plan of AAA setups near Key Levels.
Don’t get distracted by missed opportunities.
Market Timers
- Longer Term Market Timer (OVIs): Half Green.
- Medium Term Swing Timer: Bullish.
- Index OVIs: All blue apart from the IWM which is neutral.
Fast Filters Stock Selection
This week I’ve focused on post-earnings setups exhibiting OVI, consolidations near Key Levels and Shrinking Retracements.
Remember a chart needs to have the right qualities for you to consider trading it.
Pick your game and stick to the best quality setups that conform to it.
My game is OVI, near Key Levels, Shrinking Retracements, and a consolidation/sideways move. The other two Big Money Footprints are desirable but those four are essential to ME!
You can watch my full analysis in the video below.
Video analysis
Remember, you can play the video at 1.25x or 1.5x speed if you want to save time! I have placed all the stocks covered in today’s review in your “Latest Preview” watch list.
