Yes, it’s that time of year when change is in the air. You can smell it!
Autumn is upon us and we, as professional bettors, have to take note and act accordingly, or pay the price in lost bets. It’s that simple; let me explain further…
I am talking horse racing. We approach the end of the current turf flat season, we can see the misnomer that is the ‘new’ National Hunt season (it actually started in April!) on the horizon, and of course we must pay heed to ground conditions.
If you can’t handle the changes, you are not going to win over the coming six months. Don’t be kidded by those who blame losses on the changeover, which happens every year, surprise surprise. It’s just a convenient peg on which to hang the hat of losing bets.
I am not suggesting that understanding the above will prevent losses or losing bets; it will, however, cut down the amount of bets placed and reduce losses, giving the winning bets a better opportunity of making overall profit.
So, let’s take each of the above three occurrences in order as they happen.
My golden rules
First up is the end of the current turf flat season. We cannot expect Horse A, who has been running consistently on good and good to firm ground in the summer, to produce the same or better form on perhaps soft October ground. Even October good ground will have a higher content of ‘juice’ than summer good ground. Think of the morning dew.
That said, it’s possible that a summer horse will take his form into the autumn and perform well or even win. We can never be certain but that is where a good understanding of the form book comes to the fore over relying just upon a system selection. In my experience of systems (ooo’s of them), I have rarely seen ground conditions taken into account. What I am trying to highlight is that you ignore the going at your peril at any time of year (see last month’s article “Let’s Get Going”).
The emergence of the ‘new’ National Hunt season 2022/23, as I say, is not a new season at all but it is the time of year when the better races are up for grabs and the better horses emerge to grab them. From November, it’s all roads lead to Cheltenham!
We are privileged to witness the finest bloodstock on offer from the UK and Ireland, all with one aim in mind – Cheltenham in March. Horses will be campaigned to determine their credentials to land one of the big pots on offer at Prestbury Park come March 2023. I’m already loving the idea of pitting my form book wits to the task in hand!
So, what can go wrong with early National Hunt betting?! Here’s my GOLDEN RULE…
NEVER, EVER bet on a horse making its seasonal debut.
If your chosen tipster (definitely not me!) advises such a bet, you should ask a few serious questions of him or her. I could suggest several questions but I’m sure you have your own. Betting on horses making their seasonal debut is a well paved route to the poor house. I could write much more but you have been given the heads up.
Finally, ground conditions I.E. the going.
We are in the autumn for turf flat horses but that will soon change to proper winter ground for the National Hunt horses. It’s a whole new ball game! The form book will soon fill with soft ground horse form and heavy ground horse form along with form on good and good to soft ground. Each type of going needs its own attention so as not to fall into a complacency of lumping all ground conditions into one pot. It’s not an easy problem to solve but if you understand going then you will have far fewer losing bets because of it.
The variables to hand to select one horse to bet on are many-fold. But each variable must be checked and checked again prior to placing a bet. I can confess to learning most of my skills AFTER placing a bet! The trick is not to repeat the mistake but that in itself is also a difficult lesson to learn.
Yes, I do bet losers too but far fewer than most.
Making a profit with your betting is not easy, but it can be done.
My clients at First Class Racing make a profit to worthwhile stakes, more than doubling the recommended bank since we got underway last summer…
If you’d like to join them for the coming National Hunt season, just click this link for more info.