How to be more wolf

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Being a sheep is rarely a good thing.

If you fail to question people in authority you open yourself up to corruption and dictatorship…

If you only listen to the most popular music you’ll eventually go insane, like a perpetually cheery Heart DJ, dead behind the eyes after one too many plays of the latest Gary Barlow single…

And if you’re a furry thing in a field, well, watch your back is all I can say – the rumours are true.

In betting it’s no different – sheep are sent to the slaughterhouse while those who try something different to the majority regularly succeed.

It makes perfect sense too…

The majority of bettors lose, so if you follow the majority you’ll lose too.

Prey on the weak

Of course profiting isn’t as simple as backing outsiders who nobody else is backing – outsiders are outsiders for a reason and, as discussed recently, it’s actually easier to find value on favourites than longer priced selections…

Instead, a good tactic is looking at markets where there is likely to be a sheep bias towards one particular outcome which is driving the price lower than it should be.

A great example occurred at a recent snooker World Championship…

In this event Judd Trump started as joint favourite with Mark Selby despite Judd having never won the competition and only reaching one final (back in 2011), while Selby was the holder, had won it in two of the last three seasons and was world number one.

The reason Trump was such a short price was simple – he plays a fast, attacking game, similar to that of the perennially underpriced Ronnie O’Sullivan (by the way, Ronnie hasn’t won the World Champs since 2013!)…

In short, he’s a fan favourite.

The end result was Trump getting knocked out in round one and Selby winning the championship but that’s irrelevant really – the important thing is that on all known form Selby should have been a shorter price.

There are countless other examples too and they all lend themselves to wolves…

Why not bet on draws in the football?

After all, most people who bet do so at least partly so they can cheer on a side – it’s quite hard to cheer on a draw!

Or why not oppose overrated English players and teams in European and international competition?

Ultimately the odds are largely set by bettors rather than bookmakers with the weight of money determining the prices (the more people bet on something the shorter price it will be, irrespective of the bookie’s opinion on the likelihood of it happening)…

Therefore if you spot these areas of bias and take the opposite view you’ll more often than not end up with a value bet.

In betting, for every winner there’s a loser, and I’d rather back a wolf than a sheep any day of the week.

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